Jack's Free Pick Friday: Tampa Bay Rays +150

The Tampa Bay Rays just got several key hitters back from injury.  They have gone 9-4 in their last 13 games overall while scoring at least 4 runs in 10 of those 13 games, including six straight.  They are playing too well right now to be +150 underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays have struggled at the plate all season scoring just 3.6 runs per game overall and 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters.  Lefty Tyler Alexander has posted a 2.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto, allowing just 4 earned runs and 16 base runners in 18 innings.

But this play is as much of a fade of Chris Bassitt as anything.  Bassitt is 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts this season and has no business being a -165 favorite tonight.  Bassitt has allowed 13 runs, 8 earned, and 5 homers in 18 innings in his last three starts against Tampa Bay.  Bet the Rays Friday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -105

The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the most underrated lineups in the big leagues.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  They have the rest advantage over the Houston Astros after having yesterday off.  They also have a massive advantage on the mound and should be bigger favorites as a result.

Freddy Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight starts this season with 58 K's in 44 2/3 innings and only 4 homers allowed.  He'll be opposed by one of the worst starters in baseball in Hunter Brown, who is 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Brown has already allowed 27 earned runs and 60 base runners in 27 1/3 innings.

Milwaukee is 7-0 in Friday games this season.  The Brewers are 6-0 in their last six road games against AL West opponents.  Bet the Brewers Friday.

15* AL Friday Total DOMINATOR on White Sox/Yankees OVER 7.5

This total is too low tonight for these two offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers inside hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  I'll gladly back the OVER in a game the Yankees are capable of covering the total on their own.

The Yankees have scored a total of 24 runs in their last four games overall for an average of 6.0 runs per game.  They should feast on Mike Clevinger, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.

Nestor Cortes is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  He is 1-4 with a 4.03 ERA in nine starts this season, including 0-2 with a 5.10 ERA in his last three.  The White Sox are heating up at the plate which is a big reason they have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Guardians -115

The Minnesota Twins were just outscored 14-1 in their 3-game sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees.  They had to play yesterday while the Cleveland Guardians had Thursday off, giving them a big rest advantage.

The Guardians also have the advantage on the mound today and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Triston McKenzie has posted a 1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings.  McKenzie has owned the Twins, posting a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing just 3 earned runs in 19 innings with 23 K's.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is getting way too much respect from the books today.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 1/3 innings to the Blue Jays in his last start.  He has gotten to face Toronto, Seattle and the White Sox in his only three starts this season, which are three of the worst offenses in baseball.  This is a big step up in class for him here tonight.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Reds/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-6 in their last 23 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season.  They face a Cincinnati Reds team that is heating up at the plate scoring 5 runs or more in four of their last five games.

Frankie Montas is 2-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 12 1/3 innings away from home.  Montas is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.

James Paxton is very fortunate to have a 2.58 ERA this season when you consider he has a 1.41 WHIP and has already allowed 24 walks in 38 1/3 innings with only 22 K's.  His stuff isn't very great, and he will get hit hard soon.

The Dodgers are 13-2 OVER in home games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-6 in their last 23 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.6 runs per game at home this season.  They will be highly motivated for a victory off two consecutive losses, including an upset loss as -305 favorites in Game 1 to the Reds yesterday.

The Cincinnati Reds are a mess right now.  They have gone 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  A big reason for their struggles is injuries up and down their lineup as they are struggling to score runs.  They have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of those 15 games, including 2 runs or fewer in seven of those.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mount tonight behind James Paxton, who is 5-0 with a 2.58 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in three home starts.  Paxton held the Reds to one run in 5 innings in his lone career start against them last season.

Frankie Montas is 2-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three road starts, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 24 base runners in 12 1/3 innings away from home.  Montas is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 12 earned runs, 4 homers and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 28-7 in their last 35 games off a loss by 4 runs or more and outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Friday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Braves OVER 8

The Atlanta Braves have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game despite disappointing seasons thus far for many of their top hitters.  It's only a matter of time before they start raking consistently.  The Padres are hitting .282 and scoring 5.4 runs per game on the road this season.

The Braves are capable of covering this total on their own tonight.  Matt Waldron is the worst starter for the Padres, going 1-5 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight starts.  He has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.

Max Fried is getting too much respect from the books here.  He is 3-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight starts this season, but 1-0 with a 4.73 ERA in two home starts.  Fried allowed 4 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings of an 11-6 loss to the Padres in his last home start against them.

San Diego is a perfect 11-0 OVER off three consecutive division games this season.  Fried is a perfect 11-0 OVER in his 11 career Friday night home starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pirates/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

Kyle Hendricks should not be pitching in a game with a total of 7.5 or less.  Hendricks is 0-3 with a 10.04 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in six starts this season while allowing 29 earned runs and 9 homers in 26 innings.

Paul Skenes is the top prospect in baseball which is why this total is so low.  But with the hype comes expectations that are tough for him to live up to.  We saw that in his major league debut against the Cubs on May 11th.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 innings.  Now the Cubs get to see him for the 2nd time in a week, which is to their advantage.

The OVER is 8-0-1 in the last nine meetings between the Pirates and Cubs with 9 or more combined runs in all nine meetings, including 11 or more combined runs in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Pirates/Cubs NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Conditions look good for a slug fest in Chicago at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field this afternoon.  Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left.  The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own against Pittsburgh's Bailey Falter.

Falter is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts this season, allowing 8 homers in 43 1/3 innings with only 27 K's.  Falter is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA in four road starts as well.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts against them.

No question Shota Imanaga's numbers are impressive this season for the Cubs.  But he has been fortunate to have the ERA and WHIP he has to this point according to the advanced analytics.  He is due some negative regression especially with how many runners he puts on base.

The OVER is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Pirates and Cubs with 9 or more combined runs in all 10 meetings, including 11 or more combined runs in seven of those.  Pittsburgh is 11-3 OVER in road games with a total of 8 to 8.5 runs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL Saturday BLOWOUT on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+110)

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost the first two games of this series to the Pittsburgh Pirates up against their two best starting pitchers against two of their worst.  Now there's a role reversal, and the untouchable Shota Imanaga will take down the awful Bailey Salters in Game 3 today.

Imanaga is 5-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in eight starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 46 2/3 innings.  Falter is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in eight starts, allowing 8 homers in 43 1/3 innings with only 27 K's.  Falter is 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA in four road starts as well.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four career starts against them.  His teams are 0-4 in those four starts.  

The Cubs are 10-3 when playing with double revenge this season.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.